Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 96126.396554 101322.063593 106512.116270 112082.093655 117887.019550 123754.913885 130131.209809
2025-07-20 88349.610424 96358.590091 104576.739786 113629.146925 123309.709751 133340.817758 144509.951796
2025-07-27 82411.597229 92353.375289 102773.592331 114487.617672 127266.709862 140762.164594 156068.912525
2025-08-03 77350.741306 88695.635410 100801.041295 114642.901332 129994.754895 146461.928633 165422.834695
2025-08-10 73369.258215 85842.676826 99361.877806 115050.089603 132698.991266 151884.262648 174259.682070
2025-08-17 69790.274565 83165.485357 97868.812802 115159.272569 134859.792832 156530.783966 182093.218572
2025-08-24 67410.532765 81669.590569 97545.481901 116437.944800 138208.793248 162409.789858 191242.691654
2025-08-31 64474.424962 79364.251356 96146.003023 116343.826365 139870.008130 166282.436364 198046.198977
2025-09-07 62765.415195 78384.342044 96183.476742 117825.443627 143277.490078 172105.696173 207064.678073
2025-09-14 60939.305759 77167.036684 95856.831876 118803.932659 146038.581134 177144.700956 215163.200684
2025-09-21 58804.979935 75483.967794 94893.385840 118950.760460 147757.068135 180924.732540 221770.034306
2025-09-28 56794.949931 73866.758145 93932.216818 119029.418519 149335.806793 184499.286465 228113.178974
2025-10-05 55771.613780 73432.930834 94385.424621 120814.321683 152979.772922 190565.563606 237491.887575
2025-10-12 54678.869260 72867.851729 94643.908773 122338.740613 156302.403116 196262.597264 246471.588812
2025-10-19 53338.503314 71939.216293 94410.423859 123222.819722 158822.747486 200990.984957 254304.933970
2025-10-26 51725.783402 70608.117859 93626.771562 123381.377373 160420.027364 204585.706288 260768.921586
2025-11-02 50337.539990 69513.423559 93093.905824 123812.214839 162322.804107 208535.467319 267665.856812
2025-11-09 48879.402117 68279.410401 92341.441615 123927.792098 163803.671512 211952.510270 273911.626660
2025-11-16 48067.141420 67853.794769 92588.689499 125285.052548 166824.025340 217263.158503 282503.202345
2025-11-23 46646.742459 66585.601351 91718.361252 125185.132161 167986.119199 220263.937426 288245.509363
2025-11-30 46027.519291 66354.236163 92164.909671 126757.703223 171258.226791 225893.110328 297274.150318
2025-12-07 45211.106865 65831.805795 92210.701775 127796.142486 173842.923440 230668.880091 305261.432741
2025-12-14 44062.399283 64827.853637 91596.737279 127951.957977 175279.707310 233996.968280 311443.164672